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The EU’s prime vitality official, who stepped down on the weekend throughout the handover to a brand new European Commissioner, has warned in opposition to a deal to switch Russian fuel piped via Ukraine by labelling the imports as Azerbaijani.
European vitality corporations have been negotiating with counterparts in Ukraine and Azerbaijan to make sure that flows of fuel to central Europe would proceed after an settlement with Russia’s Gazprom to provide fuel through Ukraine expires on December 31.
Below the settlement, Azerbaijan would ship fuel to the Ukrainian border, from the place it may then be despatched to Europe via a posh swap association with Russia.
The principle beneficiaries of this deal can be the Moscow-friendly governments of Hungary and Slovakia, which have defied the bloc’s efforts to wean itself off Russian fuel following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Kadri Simson, the outgoing EU vitality commissioner, instructed the Monetary Occasions that such a “swap” would merely lead to Russian flows persevering with however “pre-labelling” them as Azerbaijani. The association was “completely pointless”, she stated, because it was attainable for European corporations to purchase Russian fuel on the Ukrainian border themselves, she added.
EU international locations have dedicated to cease shopping for Russian fossil fuels by 2027, however fuel purchases will not be topic to sanctions imposed by the bloc in response to Moscow’s struggle. European corporations are nonetheless allowed to “negotiate with the Ukrainians and proceed their buy” of fuel from Russia, Simson stated.
Analysts have expressed concern {that a} sudden cut-off may increase costs within the depths of winter. European fuel costs are greater than double what they have been in 2020, the final winter earlier than Russia began to squeeze provides in response to the EU’s assist for Ukraine.
Gasoline flows reaching the EU via Ukraine account for about 5 per cent of the bloc’s complete provides, with Austria, Slovakia and Hungary being the principle beneficiaries. Gazprom, nonetheless, halted provides to Austria earlier this month after the Austria vitality group OMV was awarded €230mn in an arbitration ruling in opposition to the Russian firm.
Hungary has been negotiating new fuel offers with Gazprom to extend provides subsequent 12 months.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in July that Kyiv was in talks with Azerbaijan to take care of fuel flows via the war-torn nation, regardless of the heavy Russian bombardments on Ukraine’s vitality infrastructure.
However the probability of Ukraine remaining a transit nation for EU-bound fuel has light as talks stall. Slovakian and Hungarian vitality corporations are exploring choices to entry fuel from Azerbaijan through different routes.
Final month the Slovak fuel firm SPP signed a pilot contract with Socar, Azerbaijan’s state vitality firm, via Turkey and the Balkans.
The deal adopted an inconclusive assembly between Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Ukrainian counterpart to attempt to preserve flows through Ukraine.
If the pilot mission with Baku works nicely, “vital contracts sooner or later are attainable”, Vladimír Šimoňák, Slovakia’s deputy economics minister, not too long ago instructed the FT. “As for Ukraine, talks are ongoing, with outcomes unsure.”
Requested whether or not Azerbaijan may additionally find yourself re-exporting Russian fuel relatively than delivering its personal manufacturing, Šimoňák joined others in acknowledging that this could be near-impossible for the EU to observe.
“I don’t suppose there can realistically be an efficient assure” concerning the origins of the fuel, he stated.
Ukrainian officers and MPs stated it was unlikely {that a} deal can be reached with Azerbaijan however declined to verify that talks with Baku had fallen via.
The Ukraine transit deal brings some profit for Kyiv, which earns about $1bn in transit charges a 12 months, although solely a few fifth of that’s gross earnings. Ending it could lead to a $6.5bn loss for Russia, except it may redirect the flows, in line with the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.
Ukraine’s Naftogaz confirmed that the contract with Gazprom wouldn’t be prolonged however stated it was not concerned in different negotiations.
Ukraine’s fuel transit system operator TSO, which operates the pipeline, stated it was not concerned in talks. It had not been approached by any European corporations seeking to purchase fuel on the border with Russia, it stated, citing costly threat insurance coverage because the probably motive.
Ukraine’s vitality ministry declined to touch upon whether or not talks have been nonetheless underneath means with Azerbaijan. The workplace of Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, who has been main the talks, didn’t reply to requests for remark.
Gazprombank, the principle conduit for Russian vitality funds, was hit with sanctions by the US final month. Simson stated the US sanctions had “not but” affected European consumers however that Brussels was in touch with US officers concerning the transfer.
“Even when we are going to lose all of the [Russian] provide, we consider we are going to get via this winter and we will refill our fuel storage subsequent spring,” Simson stated.
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